Big picture
A very large aid package including hundreds of tanks (but short of aircraft) is pledged to Ukraine by the Allies, and Ukrainian army will be gaining strengths month by month by the end of 2023 and further. First Western main battle tanks Leopard-2 are to be delivered by the end of March 2023. The Russian army is trying an offensive right now before the significant reinformcement of the Ukrainian army. The offensive lasts already about a month in the Bakhmut-Soledar area. So far the Ukrainian defenders withstood and did not allow any major breakthroughs. Every day of the successful defense brings closer the moment when first Bradleys and Leopards will enter the battle. For the successful counter-offensive though Ukraine will need deployment of F-16 aircraft or analogous machines.
Kings and Generals video
A very good video reviewing the period of Dec 15 2022 - Jan 2023 from Kings and Generals channel. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmpWByOr6JQ
The only issue I see with this video is the discussion of the "fight between the Russian regiments for power", i.e. between Wagner group and the regular army. It is an old trick: political observers spent decades debating the "towers of Kremlin", "bulldog fight under the Kremlin rug". It is obvious that such debates are not more than a distraction from the reality. In fact, Wagner PMC mercenaries fight on the Bakhmut front alongside with regular Russian forces, enjoying support of artillery, aircraft, missiles, i.e. they are not different at all from the rest of the invading army, they are just another special unit.
Tank updates
All of a sudden, many months of tank debates have been resolved: US President Biden announced delivery of 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine (later), which did not leave any space for Germany's councellor Scholz to further delay Germany's decision on tanks (now). Read details of this story here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/28/inside-story-biden-ukraine-tanks/
Many countries agreed to send their Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine.
In total, it is reported that up to 321 tanks are promised to Ukraine:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/27/world/ukraine-tanks-western-allies-intl-hnk/index.html
There are caveats: the largest number comes from Spain, and it is unclear in what shape they are.
The first deliveries (UK Challenger) and Leopard-2 from Germany are expected by the mid-Spring (April-May).
There was a report that the US tanks will be delivered by the end of 2023 or at the beginning of 2024, because they are yet to be produced.
Germany also unblocked the exports of Leopard-1 tanks to Ukraine from the countries that have them. In Belgium, a businessman has a collection of Leopard-1 tanks and now he is ready to sell them for half a million euro per tank. https://www.voanews.com/a/belgian-arms-trader-defense-minister-tangle-over-tanks-for-ukraine-/6943740.html
Canada pledged 4 Leopard-2 tanks and have delivered the first one to Poland already. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2htcmYWiUM8
It looks like in the coming year Ukraine will be provided with the large number of main battle tanks, which would support the defensive and counter-offensive operations.
Armored vehicles updates
Hundreds of armored vehicles are to be delivered to Ukraine, and they will likely arrive before the main battle tanks.
https://apnews.com/article/politics-military-technology-ukraine-government-russia-war-2d59aae94a7ad8a5c22083e77d699417
Ukrainian Military expert Petro Chernyk argues that US Bradley vehicles will make a huge difference on the battlefield, because of their far superiour sensors and armament. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AAlQDxf158&t=2s
Air defense
A SAMP-T system from Italy/France is about to be deployed in Ukraine. It will be the only one capable of intercepting the ballistic missiles before US Patriot systems arrive.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/01/23/italy-confirms-samp-t-missile-defense-donation-to-ukraine/
Long range weapons - Gliding bombs
The delivery to Ukraine of 150km range gliding bombs that could be launched from HIMARS was announced in the US aid package. It is a long awaited game changer, since the current systems provide Ukraine with maximum 80 km of range. However, the delivery time is 9 month (? spring 2023 according to another report), so they will be in Ukraine closer to the end of 2023 along with Abrams tanks.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/03/ukraines-new-rocket-boosted-glide-bombs-can-turn-around-and-hit-targets-on-the-backs-of-hills-90-miles-away/?sh=15ed433e6371
F-16 aircraft
After main battle tanks, the next logical step of arms deliveries to Ukraine would be F-16 aircraft. A Ukrainian pilot in his interview to Financial Times said that Ukrainian military aviation is deteriorating: https://www.ft.com/content/bdcba1a3-9c25-445e-9885-cf6f0b126b7f
It is not surpsizing: after almost a year of intensive fighting Soviet era aircraft (which are 30-40 years old) are deteriorating, spare parts are exhausted as well. Also from time to time, there is loss of an aircraft during the battle near the frontlines.
The delivery of aircraft becomes critical for Ukraine. Without air support, main battle tanks and other arms would not be of much use in the counter-offensive operations.
F-16 is a good candidate according to many military experts:
- it is a universal platform for defensive and offensive operations
- it was build in large numbers (>4000)
- it was exported to many countries, so there are maintenance facilities available in Europe
- it is not the latest aircraft, some countries are switching already for F-35 and their fleet of F-16 becomes available
Of course, training the pilots takes a lot of time (UK reported that a standard course is 5 years, and a shortened one is 2 years), however, it is possible to train pilots during shorter time for a few specific tasks rather than a full course.
See also Taras Chmut interview (in Ukrainian): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IR9FfsuHkA0 on the tank deployment (different models, different timelines) the necessity of aircraft (and that this matter has been solved and will be announced in one or two months).
Frontline: Kreminna, Soledar, Bakhmut, Vugledar
According to the DeepState map, Russian invaders captured Soledar (it was confirmed by the Ukrainian army speakers as well). Soledar was nearly destroyed, as previously Mariupol, Volnovakha, Severodonesk. The offese continued to the to the north and east of Soledar to Blahodatne and Sakko and Vancetti.
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/48.8096/37.6172
There is a lot of detailed information in the early February reports by Tom Cooper: https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-3-february-2023-56183abaab20
He is writing that Kreminna offensive, Bakhmut offensive, and Vuhledar offensive altogether constituted that long expected 'biiig' Russian offensive (instead of the attack on Kyiv expected by many). He also keeps repeating that near Vuhledar the offensive was quickly stopped by the Ukrainian army because regiments there were coordinates very well, while North of Bakhmut the lack of coordination caused the loss of Soledar. Now Siversk is in danger since it has to be defended from the North (Kreminna) and from the South (Soledar).
The moving front line also brought more shelling and missile strikes on the nearby cities: Kramatorsk, Chasiv Yar, Barvinkove.
Still, the Bakhmut is holding up, of course at the price of lives of its many defenders. The Ukrainian army is holding up in the expectation of critical weapon systems delivery: Bradley and other armored vehicles and main battle tanks.
Missile terror in Kharkiv
After a few weeks of relative quiet, Kharkiv was hit by missile strikes for two days in a row. The main building of Beketov university of civilian infrastructure was ruined: https://trueua.info/news/tri-poverhi-zrujnovani-rektor-universitetu-beketova-rozpoviv-pro-naslidki-obstrilu-harkova. What a telling story: a Russian missile ruined a university of civilian infrastructure of Ukraine.
Overall, the relatively mild winter prevented a major disaster in Ukraine. With a significant sector of energy infrastructure ruined by Russian missile strikes in October-November-December 2022, Ukraine still was able to live through the winter season using many power generators supplied from around the world.
Belarusian Kalinoyvki regiment
https://www.youtube.com/@BelWarriors . The regiment is fighting as a part of the Ukrainian armed forces and growing. In this video it announces the recruitment of tankers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1h6ec9zfe8
These young people are saving the honor of Belarus, and they will likely become the major political force in Belarus after the war in Ukraine ends.
Path to the liberation of Crimea
Interestingly, according to Petro Chernyk, the liberation of Crimea from the military point of view is easier than of Donesk/Luhansk region. Similarly to Kherson, Crimea is supplied over the bridge, and destruction of this bridge with long range missiles
will make the withdrawal of the Russian troops from the peninsula just a question of time.
Anti-corruption raids in Ukraine
BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64482072 and many other outlets in the last week of so reported:
- resignation of Kyrylo Tymoshenko (deputy head of the office of Zelelenskiy (head = Andriy Yermak)). In October 2022 journalists found that Tymoshenko used one of Chevrolet Tahoe vehicles given by GM to Ukraine to evacuate civilians from the war zone.
- search in Kolomoiskiy's house (one of the richest persons in Ukraine, sanctioned by the US)
- search of Avakov's house (an influential Ukrainian politician)
- resignation of the heads military administration of 5 regions of Ukraine: https://hromadske.ua/posts/uryad-zvilniv-goliv-pyatoh-oblasnih-vijskovih-administracij
- resignation of the deputy minister of defense https://suspilne.media/365192-skandal-v-minoboroni-zastupnik-ministra-podav-u-vidstavku/.
- resignation of all top officials of Customs of Ukraine: https://tsn.ua/exclusive/masove-zvilnennya-kerivnictva-mitnici-scho-vidomo-pro-skandal-u-dms-2255860.html
- search in Kyiv Revenue Agency office: https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-kyiv/3663174-dbr-provodit-obsuki-u-kiivskij-podatkovij.html
- two high rank Kyiv police officers were arrested for "covering" (meaning enabling and allowing for bribes) prostitution in Kyiv.
These events are widely debated in the Ukrainian society, and the opinions are ranging from seeing them as true anti-corruption actions supporting the path to the EU to seeing them as 'TV show' which will not lead to serious changes,
see the detailed analysis here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ornPVBEuec.
Indeed, given the war context, the arrest of two police officers and showing the New Year Wish list of the head of Kyiv Revenue Agency looks a bit theatrical. The anti-corruption expert proposes to wait and see how a flurry of raids shown on TV will or will not transform to the real prosecution. Reforms in the Customs were long demanded by the volunteer society, which struggles to import some of the goods required for the frontline troops.
In any case, the anti-corruption discourse in the Ukrainian society has definitely changed from 'ne na chasi' (not now, the war is ongoing) to 'let us expose corruption and prosecute'.
The ministry of defense of Ukraine annouced it will return to using Prozorro procurement system: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prozorro.
Organizational issues in the ministry of defense
Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov who spends a lot of time reporting from the frontlines,points out that right now Russian army is trying to exhaust the most experienced Ukrainian troops to reduce the overall potential of the Ukrainian army (see video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqojTUbbVoI). The mobilization potential of the Russian army is far greater than that of the Ukrainian army, so in the war of attrition the Ukrainian army does not a chance to win. Thus structural reforms in the Ukrainian army are needed which would boost its potential. As a marker of those reforms from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Butusov offers to consider the ogranization of drone surveilance in the army.
There are announcements, that defense minister Reznikov will be replaced by the chief of military intelligence Budanov. This again makes a good project for a future historian: on one hand, Ukrainian ministry of defense has to keep up with the challenges of the war and reforms at the same time, on the other hand, changing such a high ranking official at the time of war could hamper many existing processes. The latter position was supported by the Ukrainian chief commander Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny.
Missiles for debt
A heartbreaking document https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ukraine_bomber.pdf describes how Ukraine scraped for metal (according to the START agreement) and sold to Russia (to pay gas debt) its strategic bombers along with missiles. You also may see a video how one of the aircraft has been demolished
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1621366940550991872
According to Budapest memorandum of 1994 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum) Ukraine (and also Kazakhstan and Belarus) gave up its nuclear arsenal and became an examplary case of non-proliferaiton of nuclear arms.
It also turns out that corrupt Ukrainian politicians of the late 199x (under President Kuchma) were selling strategic bombers alongside with missiles to Russia, in exchange for the gas debt:
"On 5 November 1999, Russia received the first two Tu-160 [NATO name 'Blackjack'] strategic bombers from Ukraine. Ukraine plans to supply a total of eight Tu-160s and three Tu-95MSs [NATO name 'Bear']. In addition, 144 Kh-55 [NATO name AS-15 'Kent'] cruise missiles will be attached to the bombers: 12 to each Tu-160 and 16 to each Tu-95MS. Ukrainian and Russian Prime Ministers Valeriy Pustovoytenko and Vladimir Putin, respectively, signed their governments' corresponding decrees on the transfer of the strategic bombers on 2 November 1999. The transfer of the strategic bombers from Ukraine to Russia is part of a gas debt settlement. While Ukraine had
originally wanted $75 million for each bomber, the final agreement values each bomber at $25 million and the missiles at $10 million, for a total reduction of Ukraine's gas debt by $285 million".
Ukraine-EU summit
It happened in Kyiv this week: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-ukraine-wartime-summit-deliver-some-issues-disappoint-others-2023-02-02/ Politically, it is a big event in support of Ukraine (nobody would imagine anything like that in March 2022, when all embassies were evacuated from Kyiv). However, it becomes more evident that the path to EU will take a long time for Ukraine. A flurry of sporadic anti-corruption stories on TV won't solve the corruption issues: it is a long and painful process which requires to change the entrenched business, governance, and GR culture. The invasion makes reforms nearly impossible, the realistic focus has to be on the defense and the army needs only.
China aids Russia
Research of the customs data shows massive support of Russia by China State companies: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-aids-russias-war-in-ukraine-trade-data-shows-11675466360
UOC MP and ROCOR
https://texty.org.ua/articles/108789/zdes-russkyj-duh-yak-vlashtovano-rosijsku-cerkvu-v-yevropi-i-kudy-hodyty-nashym-pereselencyam/?src=main
UOC MP spreads the narrative of a church 'persecuted' in Ukraine, which fits perfectly the model of ROCOR (it originated as a church which fled Bolshevik revolution in 1917-1919). Both churches remain sattelites of the Russian Orthodox Church and continue to spread the 'Russian world' ideology.
A few voices in the ROC which oppose the war are quickly silenced: a priest in Madrid who is in active opposition to the war and a priest in Moscow who just replaced a word 'victory' for 'peace' in the prayer were suspended:
https://www.facebook.com/s.chapnin/posts/pfbid0rEHZvtNM3WC3BT7KG4UxDoqyHNbpHjLxK2aHcgy9agyhraGj7WVhCDqLQNXFRAmnl
A Swiss newspaper published the information from the archives, that Russian Patriarch Cyril (Gundyaev) worked as a KGB agent (a Russian saying goes: there is no such thing as a former KGB agent) when serving in Switzerland in the 197x: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230206-russian-patriarch-kirill-spied-in-switzerland-for-kgb-in-70s-media under the code name ‘Mikhailov‘. This was not the news for the researchers of the Russian church since mid 199x, but only now with the Swiss publication the story resonated worldwide. Vitaly Portnykov summarizes: Russia is governed by two KGB agents: Putin and Gundyaev, and we can’t be sure who is the leader among the two: agent Mikhailov - a high rank agent sent to Switzerland or a mediocre agent Putin who was sent only to East Germany.
5 conditions by Petro Chernyk
In a long run, Ukraine will be able to 'relax' only if 5 key points are met:
- Russia dissipates into 15-20 states
- all nuclear weapons in Russia are disposed
- the largest part of Russia, 'Muscovy' is separated from the gas and oil resources in Siberia
- Ukraine becomes a member of NATO
- Russia goes through a period of historical repentance for 40-50 years, similarly to modern Germany's attitude towards WWII and Holocaust.
Until these conditions are met, Ukraine for decades will need to build a strong army and always be ready for a new invasion, even with a interim 'liberal' leader in Russia, like Navalny or Kasparov. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahCp5iAFigw
The Ukrainian political analyst Vitaly Portnykov expresses a similar thought: as an only alternative to the destruction of the Ukrainan state by Russia, Ukraine has to repell the invasion military, and even when it will be achieved, Ukraine will go through the rough period of history, with large military spendings, critical depedence on EU, loss of industry (Croatia as an example, which defended it sovereignty from Serbia and turned mostly into the sea reasort), and maybe even with a mildly pro-Russian political party in power (similar to today’s Georgia). (For example, imagine Ukraine liberates all the territories including Donbass and Crimea, and EU will be applying pressure to give voting rights for all citizens including whose who were brainwashed by 8 years of Russian propaganda in Crimea and Donbass. Ukraine will have to comply, and millions of voters will influence Ukrainian politics. In a similar situation in 1991-1993 Latvia, around 10% of population (predominantly of Russian origin) which moved to Latvia during 1940-1990 Soviet occupation, were not granted voting rights in an attempt to rebuild the Latvian state without the burden of pro-Russian voters. This approach worked, even though Latvia was under a lot of pressure from the EU to remove the policy. The population (of so called non-citizens of Latvia) enjoyed visa free travels to both EU and Russia in the end.)
Earthquake in Turkey
A major earthquake in Turkey and Syria caused much destruction and thousands of victims https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXJKaQF0Rzw Many countries, including Ukraine, sent help to Turkey. At the time when such disasters are quite often, the Russian war in Ukraine is particularly senseless: the world's resources could have been sent to provide a relief to the suffering areas.
Rebuilding Ukraine conference by HURI: https://huri.harvard.edu/tcup-conference