Overall, the Ukrainian defenders are quite calm and confident. Yes, the fighting is heavy, but Ukraine has accumulated reserves, and the shipment of arms (including heavy arms) is ongoing. Russian advances have been minimal; soon they will be stopped, and the Ukrainian army will counterattack.
Big picture of the war theatre:
The Russian army brought reserves, relocated troops from Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy region, and is pushing from Izum in the Kharkiv region, from the DNR/LNR region in the East, and from Gulai-Pole in the South (Zaporizhzhia region). So far the Ukrainian army is holding its positions. The Russian army has made some minor advances, but nothing big has happened so far. On the right bank of the Dnipro between Kherson and Mykolaiv/Krivij Rih, the front is stuck.
The Ukrainian army is using mobile defence strategy rather than holding every village. Of course every village captured by the Russian army could potentially be a new Bucha, but the Ukrainian army is outnumbered and outgunned, so it is trying to manoeuvre better and use its advantages (anti-tank missiles, better coordination, better knowledge of local geography) to cause losses to the Russian army. Pretty much the same strategy as Ukraine used to defend Kyiv region. The Russian army has become more cautious, not marching in 10 km convoys as in the early days, when it suffered some 1000 casualties per day.
Overall, the number of Russian soldiers killed in the invasion has been confirmed at 20k+ by 3 different methods: 1) counting by Ukraine; 2) the number that Russia presents as Ukrainian casualties - there is a hypothesis that the Russian command decided not to invent numbers (which is a big job every day), but instead to report N of Russian casualties as N Ukrainian instead. 3) The number was recently leaked in a briefing to the Russian press (13k killed + 7k unaccounted for). Looking at numerous photos of burned tanks all over Ukraine, you may guess where the missing soldiers are. Captives fall into a different category.
With such heavy losses, the invasion now on the East of Ukraine is proceeding with greater caution.
Ukrainian losses were announced by President Zelensky at 3k (among the military). The civilian losses are much higher - 200+ children were killed as a result of air strikes, missile strikes, and shelling, adult victim's number is in tenth of thousands.
Missile strikes on Ukraine continue every day. Russia is using submarines on the Black Sea to launch cruise missiles, strategic bombers, and warships in the Caspian Sea (cruise missiles can fly that far). Kharkiv and Mykolaiv are being hit every day. Kharkiv's casualties creep higher and higher almost every day.
After the sinking of the Moscow flagship, the Black Sea fleet retreated to Sevastopol. Russia is still keeping the numbers of casualties on the ship secret. Some parents of soldiers are starting to speak up, since the ship had some 500 sailors.
Mariupol suffered the heaviest bombing last week. The remaining defenders (Azov, marines, national guard, border guards) managed to join forces and are holding the Azovstal steel mill plant. Russia bombed the plant with heavy 3000 kg anti-bunker bombs. There were about 1000 civilians in the shelters of the plant and some number of wounded Ukrainian soldiers. Despite all possible efforts at every level to evacuate the plant, only 4 buses (instead of 60 needed) were able to get out.
Later it was revealed that Ukrainian army performed a unique operation: helicopters were flying through the occupied territories to deliver supplies and fighters to besieged Azovstal and bring back wounded. YouTube video
The next attempt will be made tomorrow by Metropolitan Onufriy, head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate), who was always a "Russian World" supporter in Ukraine, but with the start of the invasion this year condemned the war and called on Putin to stop it.
Russia moved highly trained troops from Azovstal to the Izum-Gulaipole front. Likely the perimeter of Azovstal will be held by numerous less-valuable troops, while heavy bombing will continue on the plant itself.
Most of the city in Mariupol has been captured, however. People who remained in Mariupol go through filtration camps, where they wait for their turn for 2 weeks and are then thoroughly checked. Any ties with the Ukrainian military or law enforcement means execution or being sent to torture prisons.
Previously, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that, if the defenders of Azovstal and the civilians hiding there are destroyed by Russia, Ukraine will leave the negotiation process. The same condition applies to a pseudo-referendum in Kherson, where Russia is going to try creating a 'Kherson Republic' sometime at the beginning of May.
Russian occupation authorities continue to gather bodies in Mariupol and bury them in mass graves. Two such graves are visible from satellites, and thousands of bodies are estimated to be buried there.
In occupied Melitopo,l the resistance has killed already some 100 Russian troops.
Arms shipment to Ukraine:
Heavy arms (mostly howitzers including self-propelled ones, but also MLRS and aircraft parts) are being shipped from many countries: US, Canada, UK, Netherlands, Slovakia, and France. Some of them are already in service on the battlefield, but most are still being delivered. Such support could help Ukraine to stop the Russian offence in the Eastern Ukraine and to counter-attack. Now it has become clear that the type of Howitzer being sent to Ukraine is the M777 and not the ancient one, so it is indeed a big help from the US and Canada.
The anti-aircraft systems are working well in Eastern Ukraine - the number of Russian aircraft, drones, and helicopters shot down is going up every day. There is no brutal bombing of cities by aircraft as there was during the early days in Kharkiv (except in Mariupol).
A big political scandal is unfolding in Germany. Journalists put together the sequence of claims and announcements by Chancellor Scholtz, and it turns out that he is consistently doing whatever it takes to avoid sending heavy arms to Ukraine - he has invented and used every possible excuse. Given that the German people, the industry lobby, and many politicians support the sending of heavy arms, Scholtz faces a political crisis. However, he has already won two months for Russia in this invasion. That might have been enough already for the Russian army to defeat Ukraine twice over, given that Germany is the largest military supplier geographically close to Ukraine. While Ukraine is beating the odds, more pressure is needed on Sholtz to start delivering arms.
In the lead-up to the second round of the French presidential election this coming weekend, Macron increased his lead over Le Pen. The rhetoric on Ukraine became more supportive - 'France will be the first country to avoid using gas and oil,’ and France also announced the shipment of heavy arms to Ukraine.
Finland with its huge border with Russia has voted to join NATO on an urgent basis. Sweden is next.
Japan has officially called its Northern Islands 'illegally occupied by Russia.’
Consultations between Ukraine and Russia are ongoing, but it is obvious that Russia has decided to continue with the invasion. After the horrors of Bucha and Kramatorsk, negotiating is also harder from the Ukrainian side: both the army and the Ukrainian citizenship prefer to fight until the last Russian soldier leaves the Ukrainian territory. Even when it happens, however, the danger for Ukraine will not be over - Russia will likely continue to hit Ukraine with cruise missiles, and Ukraine will need more air defence systems. Also, it is likely that Russia will attempt a third invasion (after 2014 and 2022) in (say) 2024 or 2030, once it has accumulated some more military reserves (similar to what took place after the first and second Chechen wars). Even the request of the UN General Secretary, who learned the details of Julian Calendar and called for a Paschal (Easter) ceasefire this week, was rejected by Russia from the UN tribune (whereas Ukraine agreed to a four-day ceasefire).
Overall, there is disappointment in Ukraine in the UN as an organization. The UN is simply watching the war tragedy unfolding and is not able to do anything about it.
Ukraine is working with several guarantor countries to be co-signatories of the future agreement. However, it looks as if these countries will not protect Ukraine along the lines of NATO's fifth article—likely any support in the event of another invasion will take the form of sanctions and the shipment of arms.
Sanctions are unfolding as well. The European Union more or less reached the point of banning the export of Russian oil. Some countries are banning both oil and gas from Russia.
What is next?
The coming weeks are critical. They will define how far Russia can develop its attack in the East of Ukraine and how well the Ukrainian army will be able to hold its positions. Then, with the shipment of arms, it is possible that Ukraine will be able to launch a counter-attack that might last for months and liberate all of Ukraine.
In conclusion, I will try to answer the “why?" question briefly. Many people wonder why Russia is attacking Ukraine.
The Russian Empire/Soviet Union/modern Russia is a Moscow-centric territorial empire. Note that it is the largest country in the world precisely for that reason. The main idea is to hold as much land as possible. People don't matter. Every resistance to the Empire always has to be brutally suppressed, whether in ancient Novgorod, Kazan, Kyiv, or in modern Chechnya, Georgia, Belarus, or Ukraine. You can be sure that Russia would occupy Alaska if it could - there is an old grudge about 'how stupidly some Tsar sold Alaska to the US.' Also, in the Russian mindset, the world is divided into two parts: 'Holy Russia’ and the 'evil West.' There is no Ukraine in this picture - only 'Russian land spoiled by the West.' This worldview does not exist only in Putin's head - it is quite a popular mindset, whether in its entirety or in at least its key elements. Even Putin’s fiercest opponents - say, Navalny, Chichvarkin, and Zubov - believe that there is something sacred in Russia, its future, despite the current horrors.
Is there something sacred in Canada? Well, there might be many sentimental, patriotic, and warm feelings towards Canada, but rarely will you hear that it is Canada that will bring enlightenment to humankind (even though humankind would indeed live a much happier life if it chose the Canadian way).